Bush Leads! The latest USAToday/CNN poll shows President Bush leading Senator John Kerry. But the three-point lead, being within the margin of error, puts the two in a statistical dead heat. The poll says Senator Kerry received only a 1% bounce from the Democratic National Convention.
Kerry Leads! Meanwhile, a Zogby American poll taken during the DNC shows Senator Kerry with a 5-point lead over President Bush. That's an actual lead, since it's outside the poll's margin of error. It shows no Convention bounce, but the President losing three-points over the week of the DNC.
The Pollsters Lead! These guys will be in business until the polls close on November 2. The miniscule bump was not unexpected. Kerry's campaign predicted a 5% bump as the very maximum. Why? Bumps come in large part from undecided voters. As much as a quarter of undecided voters make up their minds during a party's convention. And undecided voters are in short supply this year. Wanna bet you see the same kind of numbers after the RNC in September?
Things that go "BUMP" in the Night. The Campaign Finance Institute links to an interesting academic paper on the dynamics behind convention bumps.
