Thursday, February 03, 2005

Where Did Those Iraqi Election Numbers Come From?

You've no doubt heard the numbers from the Iraqi elections -- 8 million voted, 60% turnout. But those numbers may turn out to be too optimistic. The votes aren't counted yet. The Wall Street Journal Numbers Guy wonders how reporters could have come up with the numbers -- when they were unable to travel around the country.

Editor and Publisher tracks the notion for the numbers to Farid Ayar, spokesman for Iraq's Independent Electoral Commission. He said "as many as 8 million" voted in an official announcement. Reporters shortened that to flat out "8 million."

Similar elections in Vietnam in 1967 and El Salvado in 1984 later had their numbers adjusted downward.

In Mosul, 60% of the votes have been counted and the New York Times says only 10% of the city's 500,000 eligible voters turned out. That's a Sunni dominated town -- and Sunnis boycotted the election. (Editor and Publisher)

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