OBAMA!

It's an historic night.

Yet circumstances steal Sen Barack Obama's (D-IL) thunder.

He's just become the first African-American to become the presumptive nominee of a major party.

That should be a big deal.

But any great story like that needs a hero arc. That Joseph Campbell construct that takes a character from humble beginnings through a life-changing threshold event and through trials and tribulations to achieve the impossible.

It must be something of a letdown for Sen Obama.

Because beating the Republicans this year, in this political environment, is anything but impossible.

What with a Republican administration that has crippled not only the GOP, but the country as a whole. There is little for Sen Obama to overcome at this point. The 1984 "Meadow Party" nominee "Bill the Cat" -- a dead cat at that -- could beat the Republican nominee.

Not to take anything away from Sen Obama. He'd be a hard man to beat in tough times for Democrats. He's the most natural politician of his generation -- my generation.

But his detractors will be talking as soon as tomorrow that he had it easy, he had no real challenge, he won by default. Even though the election is still five months away, they'll be trying to soften the blow of defeat in November before summer even arrives. They'll breathe a sigh of relief if the election is even close.

Hey.

Close only counts in horseshoes and hand grenades.

And if Sen Obama is running at a time when the GOP is weak -- it is not his fault. It is his time. It is the failure of a Republican administration after eight years to leave this country with a war that has no victory plan and an economy that has drained Americans of hope.

The general election campaign begins tonight. Sen John McCain (R-AZ) has a lot of catching up to do.

Convention Fun-draising

A good time at the political conventions this summer comes with a price. A really good time can run you a half million bucks. From the AP:

"Want a skybox perch to see John McCain speak at the Republican National Convention, passes to hot GOP parties that week, pampering from the concierge and private wheels to tool around town?

Want a chance to mingle with celebrities like Warren Beatty and Al Franken at the Democratic National Convention, and maybe even get face time with Barack Obama or Hillary Rodham Clinton?"

Both national committees are collecting big bucks in exchange for VIP treatment at their big summer parties. The top package for the GOP will run you $500,000, the DNC, about $250,000. (AP)

Gibbons vs. Gibbons

Gov Jim Gibbons (R-NV) just won the Governor's Mansion a couple of years ago. But he's already lost it -- to his wife.

The home of the quickie divorce is witnessing their governor battle the missus over who gets to keep the digs -- paid for by taxpayers.

The Governor (pictured here clowning on a cruise with a whole bunch of women) filed for divorce last week. Wife, Dawn, has refused to move out. So, the Governor has gone to court to evict her.

Republicans Rake Economy

Fewer than one in four Republicans believe the economy is doing well.

The Pew Research Center found only 23% of Republicans think the economy is "good" or "excellent."

Among all Americans -- only 11% rank the economy as good or better.

Just last year, 56% of Republicans said the economy was moving along just peachy. Throughout most of President Bush's tenure in office, there's been a sharp partisan divide between Democrats and Republicans on the state of the economy. (Pew Center)

NRCC Ex-Treasurer Diverted a Cool Million?

The former treasurer for the National Republican Congressional Committee is accused of diverting as much as $1 million of the GOP's money to his own personal account.

Republican leaders say Christopher Ward had been doing it for four years. He's reportedly under an FBI investigation. GOP leaders turned him in to the feds six weeks ago. (WaPo)

How Low Can They Go

The Republican National Committee wants to know how dirty they can get in the general election campaign without being considered racist or sexist -- depending on who the Democratic nominee is.

So they've hired pollsters and set up focus groups to determine the boundaries of American bigotry and chauvinism.

How sweet. From Politico:

The RNC project is viewed as so sensitive that those involved in the work were reluctant to discuss the findings in detail. But one Republican strategist, who asked that his name be withheld to speak candidly, said the research shows the daunting and delicate task ahead.

At least it's "daunting and delicate." May be a sign the old Nixonian "Southern Strategy" is losing its steam to reason and tolerance. (Politico)

Congressman Charged in Land Deal

Rep Rick Renzi (R-AZ) has been indicted for extortion, wire fraud, money laundering and other charges stemming from an Arizona land deal.

He's accused of trying to sell land that could be swapped for federally owned land. (AP)

Behind the Scenes of the McCain/Lobbyist Story

The New York Times article on Sen John McCain (R-AZ) and the telecom lobbyist doesn't sound nearly so interesting as the behind-the-scenes hand wringing that went on in the NYT newsroom as journalists argued over whether it was "fit to print." From The New Republic:

"The publication of the article capped three months of intense internal deliberations at the Times over whether to publish the negative piece and its most explosive charge about the affair. It pitted the reporters investigating the story, who believed they had nailed it, against executive editor Bill Keller, who believed they hadn't. It likely cost the paper one investigative reporter, who decided to leave in frustration. And the Times ended up publishing a piece in which the institutional tensions about just what the story should be are palpable."

Reporters learned early into their three month investigation found out that Sen McCain had retained Bob Bennett -- the lawyer who represented Bill Clinton in the Monica Lewinsky scandal -- to defend against questions from the NYT. (TNR)

McCain Denies Lobbyist Romance

It just ain't a Presidential election year until the published reports of a sex scandal -- from Monkey Business to Gennifer Flowers, it's a generation long political tradition.

Welcome to Election 2008.

Sen John McCain (R-AZ) is denying reports in the New York Times and Washington Post suggesting he had a romantic relationship with a woman lobbyist in 2000.

''I'm very disappointed in the article. It's not true,'' the likely Republican presidential nominee said as his wife, Cindy, stood beside him during a news conference called to address the matter.

Sen McCain, the likely GOP Presidential nominee, described the woman, Vicki Iseman (pictured), simply as "a friend."

But really, after an entire administration getting us into a war over WMDs that never existed and and "imminent threat" that never materialized -- sex scandals seem so quaint.

Rudy Quits

Rudy Guiliani is calling it quits. The former New York City Mayor dropped his bid for the GOP Presidential nomination today after finishing a distant third in the Florida Primary -- the only primary and caucus he actively campaigned in.

He will endorse Sen John McCain (R-AZ). (AP)

Deadlock Danger

The lack of a clear front runner for the Republican Presidential nomination has party leaders worried about the first contested GOP convention in 60 years. And that could give a huge advantage to the Democrats. From the Associated Press:

Even if Republicans choose a nominee before they convene in Minneapolis-St. Paul on Sept. 1, there's a good possibility he will emerge weeks or even months after the Democratic nominee is chosen, giving Democrats an advantage in fundraising, organizing and campaigning. Congressional Republicans particularly wanted an early nominee to draw voters' attention from President Bush, whose low approval ratings could hurt the entire party in the fall.

Democrats aren't out of the woods. Democratic leaders are bracing for a long, drawn out battle between Senators Hillary Clinton and Barak Obama for their nomination. (AP)

Dewey Defeats Truman!

Mitt Romney won last night's Michigan Primary.

But, just minutes after the election was called, the Michigan GOP fired off a press release congratulating Sen John McCain (R-AZ) for his win.

They had releases for both already prepared. A honcho says they just pushed the "wrong button." (CNN)

Bundle of Trouble

A Center for Investigative Reporting investigation for Politico found candidates -- in their rush to raise money -- have been relying on fundraisers with shady histories.

From Politico:

A fundraiser for Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney was recently suspended from practicing law. A backer of Democrat Barack Obama defaulted on loans. And a bundler for Republican Rudy Giuliani was once accused of sexual harassment.

Not long ago, the presidential campaign of Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton (D-NY) was giving away money and promising tougher vetting standards after one of its top fundraisers, Norman Hsu, turned out to be on the lam on a grand theft rap.

The system we have now was largely shaped by President Bush's 2000 campaign. His bundlers would deliver lump sums of $100,000 or $200,000 from donors -- with the "wink, wink, nudge, nudge" understanding of influence after the election. (Politico, HT: IRE)

Former Congressman Henry Hyde dies

Former Rep Henry Hyde (R-IL) has died. He'd had open heart surgery over the summer and suffered complications afterward.

Rep Hyde retired from the House last year after serving 32 years in Congress. He was known for opposing government funding for abortions and was a central figure in the impeachment of then President Bill Clinton while on the House Judiciary Committee. (Sun Times)

Hastert Leaves the House

Former House Speaker Dennis Hastert (R-IL) has resigned from Congress. He says the sudden departure will allow Illinois to hold a special election to replace him at the same time as next year's Illinois Presidential primary. From the Chicago Tribune:

Under state law, it's up to Gov. Rod Blagojevich to call a special election, and he has to set the date within five days of Hastert's resignation, which took effect at 10:59 p.m. Monday. By law, the seat must be filled within 120 days.

Rep Hastert says he's not explored job prospects -- citing a potential conflict of interest while still serving in Congress. (Chicago Tribune)

Trent Lott Callis it Quits

Sen Trent Lott (R-MS) will resign from the US Senate before the year's end. He isn't saying what he plans to do, but the former Senate Majority Leader could beat a deadline to start work as a lobbyist sooner. From the New York Times:

By resigning before the end of the year, Mr. Lott would beat the effective date for new ethics rules that double to two years the amount of time former Senators must wait before they can join a firm to lobby former colleagues. The new rule applies to those who leave office “on or after” Dec. 31.

He has spent 35 years in the House and Senate.

Entertaining Political Notions

Seems liberals and conservatives are even divided on the kinds of entertainment each side likes.

The Norman Lear Center and Zogby International conducted a survey of entertainment tastes.

Here’s some of what they found.

• Fox News wins the prize for the most politically divisive TV channel -- 70% of conservatives watch it daily and only 3% of liberals.


• The only channel conservatives watch less than MTV – is Univision.


• Not only do liberals give Comedy Central a big thumbs up 31% watch it daily, compared to 6% of all other respondents, you are more likely to find them watching comedies than moderates or conservatives.


• Brainy stuff like documentaries, arts and educational programming all appeal more to liberals – conservatives prefer action-adventures, business and sports shows. Moderates prefer children’s programs and daytime TV.


• Conservatives claim their favorite musical genre is classical but are most likely to listen to only two types of musical genres – country and gospel. They’re the least likely to listen to jazz.


• Rock is the most popular among liberals – but liberals are the most likely to listen to all genres from jazz to punk.

But we're not really a house divided over home entertainment. What pulls us together?

Football, movies on television, and we’re all in the same house with “House.” That FOX doctor drama draws an equal number of people across all political views.

Ron Paul's Guy Fawkes Day Coup

Republican Presidential candidate Rep Ron Paul (R-TX) raised more than $3.5 million dollars in a single day. And he tied it to the British holiday of "Guy Fawkes Day." From the AP:

Paul, the Texas congressman with a Libertarian tilt and an out-of-Iraq pitch, entered heady fundraising territory with a surge of Web-based giving tied to the commemoration of Guy Fawkes Day.

Fawkes was a British mercenary who failed in his attempt to kill King James I on Nov. 5, 1605. He also was the model for the protagonist in the movie "V for Vendetta." Paul backers motivated donors on the Internet with mashed-up clips of the film on the online video site YouTube as well as the Guy Fawkes Day refrain: "Remember, remember the 5th of November."

That's the single largest one day take among Republican candidates. Only Senators Hillary Clinton (D-NY) and Barack Obama (D-IL) have raised more money in a 24 hour period. (AP)

Conservatives Consider Third Party Challenge to Rudy

Christian conservatives -- a key part of the GOP base since 1980 -- threaten to mount a third party challenge for the White House if Rudy Giuliani wins the Republican Presidential nomination. The group qualifies their opposition by saying they would only "consider" the idea. But the New York Times reports it's a clear warning that Christian conservatives will not support a pro-abortion rights candidate at the head of the Republican ticket:

The group making the threat, which came together Saturday in Salt Lake City during a break-away gathering during a meeting of the secretive Council for National Policy, includes Dr. James Dobson of Focus on the Family, who is perhaps the most influential of the group, as well as Tony Perkins of the Family Research Council, the direct mail pioneer Richard Viguerie and dozens of other politically-oriented conservative Christians, participants said.

Mr Giuliani still receives a plurality of support from white evangelical voters in a recent poll from the Pew Research Center. But leaders in the Christian conservative movement warn his nomination could splinter the party. (NYT)

The New Whigs

The Associated Press reports on gallows humor among Republicans looking at next year's chances for Congressional races. Rep Tom Davis (R-VA) jokes about his party going the way of the Whigs. From the AP:

"Fundraising for Republican campaign organizations lags. That is strikingly so in the House, where the party committee spent more than it raised in each of the past two months, reported only $1.6 million in the bank at the end of August and a debt of nearly $4 million. Democrats reported $22.1 million in the bank and a debt of slightly more than $3 million."

On top of that, the Democrats are recruiting top tier candidates in several states with open seats -- while the GOP is having a hard time talking people into running. (AP via Yahoo!)