OBAMA!

It's an historic night.

Yet circumstances steal Sen Barack Obama's (D-IL) thunder.

He's just become the first African-American to become the presumptive nominee of a major party.

That should be a big deal.

But any great story like that needs a hero arc. That Joseph Campbell construct that takes a character from humble beginnings through a life-changing threshold event and through trials and tribulations to achieve the impossible.

It must be something of a letdown for Sen Obama.

Because beating the Republicans this year, in this political environment, is anything but impossible.

What with a Republican administration that has crippled not only the GOP, but the country as a whole. There is little for Sen Obama to overcome at this point. The 1984 "Meadow Party" nominee "Bill the Cat" -- a dead cat at that -- could beat the Republican nominee.

Not to take anything away from Sen Obama. He'd be a hard man to beat in tough times for Democrats. He's the most natural politician of his generation -- my generation.

But his detractors will be talking as soon as tomorrow that he had it easy, he had no real challenge, he won by default. Even though the election is still five months away, they'll be trying to soften the blow of defeat in November before summer even arrives. They'll breathe a sigh of relief if the election is even close.

Hey.

Close only counts in horseshoes and hand grenades.

And if Sen Obama is running at a time when the GOP is weak -- it is not his fault. It is his time. It is the failure of a Republican administration after eight years to leave this country with a war that has no victory plan and an economy that has drained Americans of hope.

The general election campaign begins tonight. Sen John McCain (R-AZ) has a lot of catching up to do.

McCain Supporter Blows it for him In Florida

More trouble for Sen John McCain's campaign. Police say the co-chair of his Florida Campaign has been arrested for offering a male police officer $20 for oral sex.

Florida State Rep Robert "Bob" Allen (R-Merritt Island) (mugshot at right) was arrested and charged with soliciting sex from an undercover male police officer. Police say Rep Allen requested the sex act at a men's restroom at Veteran's Memorial Park in Titusville. (WFTV)

McCain Suffers Iowa Setback

The McCain Campaign death watch is underway. In the same week as mass departures of his top national campaign aides -- two top staffers with his Iowa camp have left.

Ed Failor and Karen Slifka had hung around as volunteers when the campaign could no longer afford to pay them. But they threw their lot in with Campaign Manager Terry Nelson -- and left when Mr Nelson left.

Sen McCain has already pulled out of the crucial Ames Straw Poll next month. In the past, it's made and broken Presidential campaigns ahead of the Iowa Caucuses. (The Fix/WaPo)

2008 Primary Calendar

You can't keep up with the primaries without a program!

Stateline.org is doing the job with a schedule of primaries and caucuses. The links in this post will take you to PDF pages of their schedule. (Stateline.org)

Rudy's Iowa Stumbles

Rudy Giuliani may be slipping in Iowa and skipping the country's lead off caucuses.

The Associated Press points to a series of problems in the Giuliani campaign in Iowa:

• A sluggish campaign start
• Indecision over participating in a key straw poll
• A poor poll showing

The August straq poll is a key part of the Iowa race. Candidates spend millions to rally support. Many of the 2000 candidates quit the race all together after poor showings there.

"The bigger question is, from a man basing his candidacy on decisiveness and leadership, waffling on the straw poll is a real question." Bob Haus, Republican Consultant

And the Giuliani campaign sounds overconfident about Iowa. Staffers brush aside the straw poll saying it's only important to other candidates and are counting on Mr Giuliani's fundraising prowess and name recognition to save the day at the actual caucuses.

And a new poll from the Des Moines Sunday Register shows Mr Giuliani running third in Iowa's GOP race:

• Romney: 30%
• McCain: 18%
• Giuliani: 17%

Senator Chuck Grassley (R-IA) says he hasn't seen anything to convince him that Mr Giuliani is as far along with organizing a campaign in Iowa as he should be. (TCPalm: News)

Florida Gets a Jump

Florida's getting a jump on screwing up the next election. Governor Charlie Crist (R-FL) has signed legislation moving the Sunshine State's Presidential primaries to January 29.

That's the same day as the South Carolina primary. There are only three states with earlier nominating contests. (CNN)

Where the Candidates Are

Wouldn't you love to have the aviation fuel concession at the Des Moines airport? The Washington Post's added up all the campaign events in the early primary states:

• Iowa: 230
• New Hampshire: 203
• South Carolina: 125

Interest Way Up in Presidential Campaign

Coffee table meetings in a living room have given way to 3,000 people packing a town hall like it was a rock concert. The face of Iowa politicking is changing. The intimate meetings with a handful of voters are looking more like late season campaign rallies. The Associated Press says it could be because voters are a lot more interested in the 2008 campaign:

"A poll released April 12 by The Pew Research Center for People and the Press found that 55 percent of voters are paying 'very or fairly close' attention to the presidential race nine months before Iowa's lead-off caucuses. By contrast, only 38 percent were paying close attention in early 2003 and 45 percent in early 1999.

Democrats have consistently paid greater attention to the 2008 race than Republicans by an average of 12 percentage points, according to the Pew poll."

Just like in the polls, Democratic frontrunners have been drawing larger crowds in Iowa than GOP candidates. Senators Hillary Clinton (D-NY) and Barack Obama (D-IL) have both drawn crowds in the thousands. Nine Republican candidates showed up at one event drawing 1,000. (Daily Star)

You're On the Bus or Off the Bus -- No One Rides in the Door

All aboard the Topsy-Turvy Bus.

Ben Cohen -- the "Ben" of "Ben & Jerry's Ice Cream" is takin the bus cross country toward New Hampshire Iowa.

It's part of a campaign urging presidential candidates to move spending from defense projects to programs helping families and communities. The bus is a project of the Priorities Campaign, headed by Cohen -- wearing the green jacket in this AP photo. (AP via Yahoo)

They did Give Us Adlai Stevenson

Want a presidential primary that reflects most of America? Might want to let Illinois go first.

Iowa and New Hampshire aren't very reflective of all of America -- very white, very rural. To win an early primary -- and lead the race for your party's nomination -- you have to appeal to what is essentially a minority of America's demographics.

The Associated Press crunched Census Bureau numbers and came up with the most representative state for an early primary. They've deemed Illinois the most average state out there!

Farms, cities, diverse population. Income, education, and age all mirror America as a whole. Right in the middle of middle America. Hey, isn't it's state flag just a rectangle of beige? Maybe not. (Commercial Appeal)