What If?

The folks at boston.com have cooked up a great "What If?" machine. It lets you move markers on demographic charts to see how turnout and voting preferences to predict how the 2008 Presidential race will turn out.




Amazing thing: check out the map above. If everyone based on race, gender, and religion turned out in the same percentages and voted for the same party as in 2006, Sen Barak Obama (D-IL) wins -- 370 - 168 in the Electoral College. (boston.com)

This Ain't Your Father's Smoke-Filled Room

Sen Barack Obama (D-IL) is promising a political convention for the people. He's breaking with the tradition of accepting the Democratic nomination in front of convention floor delegates and taking his speech to an outdoor venue open to the general public. From an Obama Campaign email:

On Thursday, August 28th, he's scheduled to formally accept the Democratic nomination in a speech at the convention hall in front of the assembled delegates.

Instead, Barack will leave the convention hall and join more than 75,000 people for a huge, free, open-air event where he will deliver his acceptance speech to the American people.

Electoral Vote Chase

CNN has a "political ticker" tracking how the Presidential candidates are doing state by state. It give you an idea where the Electoral College numbers are adding up.

As of today, Sen Barack Obama (D-IL) leads Sen John McCain (R-AZ) 231-194.

A candidate needs 270 electoral votes to win. (CNN)

OBAMA!

It's an historic night.

Yet circumstances steal Sen Barack Obama's (D-IL) thunder.

He's just become the first African-American to become the presumptive nominee of a major party.

That should be a big deal.

But any great story like that needs a hero arc. That Joseph Campbell construct that takes a character from humble beginnings through a life-changing threshold event and through trials and tribulations to achieve the impossible.

It must be something of a letdown for Sen Obama.

Because beating the Republicans this year, in this political environment, is anything but impossible.

What with a Republican administration that has crippled not only the GOP, but the country as a whole. There is little for Sen Obama to overcome at this point. The 1984 "Meadow Party" nominee "Bill the Cat" -- a dead cat at that -- could beat the Republican nominee.

Not to take anything away from Sen Obama. He'd be a hard man to beat in tough times for Democrats. He's the most natural politician of his generation -- my generation.

But his detractors will be talking as soon as tomorrow that he had it easy, he had no real challenge, he won by default. Even though the election is still five months away, they'll be trying to soften the blow of defeat in November before summer even arrives. They'll breathe a sigh of relief if the election is even close.

Hey.

Close only counts in horseshoes and hand grenades.

And if Sen Obama is running at a time when the GOP is weak -- it is not his fault. It is his time. It is the failure of a Republican administration after eight years to leave this country with a war that has no victory plan and an economy that has drained Americans of hope.

The general election campaign begins tonight. Sen John McCain (R-AZ) has a lot of catching up to do.

Younger than John McCain

The atom bomb, FM radio and the Golden Gate Bridge are all younger than Sen John McCain (R-AZ).

Love the song circling them new-fangled Internets -- the one about how old Sen John McCain is. I had to have some kid show me how to use the Google to find it on the YouTube.



There's actually a blog that lists things younger than Sen McCain.

In fact, do a Google search for things younger than John McCain and you'll find 415,000 links.

Hey, at least he promises to keep that young whippernsnapper, Raul Castro off our lawn! (YouTube)

Convention Fun-draising

A good time at the political conventions this summer comes with a price. A really good time can run you a half million bucks. From the AP:

"Want a skybox perch to see John McCain speak at the Republican National Convention, passes to hot GOP parties that week, pampering from the concierge and private wheels to tool around town?

Want a chance to mingle with celebrities like Warren Beatty and Al Franken at the Democratic National Convention, and maybe even get face time with Barack Obama or Hillary Rodham Clinton?"

Both national committees are collecting big bucks in exchange for VIP treatment at their big summer parties. The top package for the GOP will run you $500,000, the DNC, about $250,000. (AP)

If You Want a Friend, Get a Dog -- Heck, It'd Probably Contribute to Obama, Too!

The wife of Sen John McCain's (R-AZ) closest friend in the Senate is sending her campaign donations to Sen Barack Obama (D-IL) this election year.

Lilibet Hagel, wife of Sen Chuck Hagel (R-NE) (pictured together, left), was a big supporter of Sen McCain back in 2000. Even gave him the maximum amount of money allowed at the time -- $1,000.

FEC records show she's shelled out two donations of $250 each to the Obama campaign this year. Sen Hagel has not donated money to any campaign -- but he's also declined to endorse his friend from Arizona. The two have very different views on the Iraq War. (WaPo)

Wrong Track Mindset

Americans have our worst outlook on the direction of the country since 1992.

The latest Washington Post-ABC News Poll shows 8 in 10 of us think the country's headed in the wrong direction.

That's bad news for Republicans -- who are catching the blame for the disaffection. President Bush slipped to his worst approval numbers ever -- just 31%. And Democrats hold a 21 point lead over Republicans as the party best able to lift the country out of its latest bout of malaise and solve the nation's problems.

As far as the long, drawn out primary fight for the Democratic nomination -- 71% of Democrats think it has had no effect on or even been good for the party's prospects of regaining the White House.

The poll shows Senator Barack Obama (D-IL) leading Sen John McCain (R-AZ) 51%-44%, and Sen Hillary Clinton (D-NY) leading Sen McCain 49%-46%.

Top issues: the economy (36%) and the Iraq War (21%).

Winning in the Hillary/Obama Fight

Alan Wolfe, writing in the Washington Post, argues that the real winner of the protracted Democratic primary process has been "democracy."

He points out that Vice President Hubert Humphrey won the Democratic nod in 1968 without entering a single primary. And he points out that Sen Hillary Clinton (D-NY) and Sen Barack Obama (D-IL) will each have weathered 55 primaries or caucuses by the time a nominee has been tapped this year.

He also points out that the Guam caucuses had more influence this year than the New York primary had in '68.

Mr Wolfe also points to the millions of new voters who registered to take part in the races that came to their states.

He suggests the long fight has actually been helpful to Democrats. (WaPo)

Clinton $20 Million in Debt

Sen Hillary Clinton's (D-NY) campaign team admits the candidate is $20 million in debt in her bid to win the Democratic nomination.

With time running out and virtually no way to beat the delegate math, Sen Clinton has reportedly called together fundraisers to round up money for the final few state primaries and caucuses as time runs out. (WaPo)

In It to Spin It -- Hillary's Hopes Fade Fast

The math isn't there -- and the media's piling on. CBS airs Sen Hillary Clinton's (D-NY) political obituary as superdelegates begin their shift to Sen Barack Obama (D-IL).

The Five Mistakes Clinton Made

Karen Tumulty, writing in Time magazine, has a list of five things she says doomed Sen Hillary Clinton's (D-NY) Presidential campaign:

1. She misjudged the mood
2. She didn't master the rules
3. She underestimated the caucus states
4. She relied on old money
5. She never counted on the long haul

All in the Family

This is going to make Thanksgiving at the Pitt-Jolie household pretty awkward.

Researchers at the New England Historic Genealogical Society have found that Sen Barack Obama (D-IL) is related to actor Brad Pitt -- and Sen Hillary Clinton (D-NY) is related to actress Angelina Jolie. (AP)

Politics and Drinking

As some of you may have suspected, there's a connection between drinking and politics.

A CNN/Opinion Research Poll looks at the link between what people drink and who they vote for.

Beer drinkers prefer Sen John McCain (R-AZ) -- 53-46% -- over Sen Hillary Clinton (D-NY). But beer drinkers are split right down the middle between Sen McCain and Sen Barack Obama (D-IL).

Turns out 28% of Americans prefer beer to wine. But 31% prefer wine to beer.

Pollsters believe the numbers are split along gender lines -- women prefer wine and Sen Clinton. (CNN)

Michigan Revote Possible -- Or Not

Michigan's re-vote has stalled again.

Not enough time. The state legislature would have to pass the plan for a re-vote by close of business on Thursday to make it happen June 3. (PoliticalWire)

Can't Tell the Players Without a Program

Sen John McCain (R-AZ) wrongly claimed Iran was allowing al Qaeda fighters to train in Iran before they go to fight in Iraq.

Sen Joe Lieberman (I-NJ) had to set him straight.

Iran is predominately Shiite. And al Qaeda is a Sunni outfit. They don't like each other. They have different agendas for Iraq -- which are in conflict with one another.

Sen McCain didn't let the foreign affairs flub faze him. "Was it over when the Germans bombed Pearl Harbor?" (AP)

Black and White and Shades of Gray

Sen Barack Obama (D-IL) called on Americans to break what he called "a racial stalemate we've been stuck in for years."

The Senator confronted racism from both black and white perspectives during a speech in Philadelphia -- the city of brotherly love and home to the Declaration of Independence which declared "all men are created equal." Sen Obama's father is black, his mother white.

Aimed at offsetting criticism over racially charged comments from his pastor, Sen Obama expanded on the issue of racism in America. (AP)

Michigan Revote Possible

Florida's shot down a mail in re-vote in the Democratic primary, and Michigan isn't any closer either.

Michigan's 156 delegates may not be seated because the state's Democratic primary was held too early. And state party leaders are still trying to decide if they'll do a do-over.

Under the latest Michigander plan, the state party would reimburse the state government for a re-do on June 3.

Florida gave up on a do-over Monday. Florida's 211 delegates are also out in the cold for now. Their fate will be left up to national Democratic leaders. (CNN)

Hillary's Records Dump

A compelling read -- if you're a wonk.

The National Archives will release 11,000 pages of Sen Hillary Clinton's (D-NY) schedule when she was first lady. Sen Barack Obama's (D-IL) has said the records need to be made public.

From a National Archives statement quoted by CNN:

“Arranged chronologically, these records document in detail the activities of the First Lady, including meetings, trips, speaking engagements and social activities for the eight years of the Clinton administration.”

The Archives has said that other documents -- like 20,000 pages of phone logs -- won't be ready for release before the general election this fall. (CNN)

Clinton Suggests Joint Ticket

The Associated Press reports Sen Hillary Clinton (D-NY) may be hinting of sharing the Democratic ticket with Sen Barack Obama (D-IL).

"That may be where this is headed, but of course we have to decide who is on the top of ticket." -- Hillary Clinton, quoted by the AP

Sen Clinton won three out of four primaries Tuesday, but still trails Sen Obama by more than 100 delegates. Some political mathematicians say she'll have to pull 6% of the vote in remaining contests to win enough delegates to get the nomination. (AP via Political Wire.com)